I will be looking to the $1 million Woodbine Mile which will be contested by a field of 8 over the turf course at Woodbine. Last year’s Woodbine Mile was a great race. El Tormenta was able to get by Got Stormy right at the finish line to complete the upset at 44-1. I don’t think we will see 44-1 taking this years’ version, but value can still be found.
#1 March to
the Arch – Ridden by Patrick Husbands and trained by Mark Casse – March to
the Arch requires a fast pace in order to win his races. Last time out at
Woodbine he was victorious in the Grade 2 King Edward Stakes by more than 2
lengths. However, in that race the speed was very fast going the half in 46
seconds flat. I don’t think March to the Arch will get that same set-up to run
into, but he’ll likely be coming from last. I think there is just too much to
ground he’ll have to make up in the end. I can’t quite take him at the low odds
he’ll be, but he is surely one to respect.
Day – Ridden by David Moran and trained by Barbara Minshall – This is going
to be a tough race for this horse to jump into and have any kind of chance.
Last time out he finished 3rd against a much softer field at
Woodbine going a mile and an eighth. He does shorten up in distance which help
his running style of being near the front, however he just hasn’t performed
well enough against lesser competition to believe he has a shot in here.
Direct to Woodbine Mile
Speight – Ridden by Kazushi Kimura and trained by Roger Attfield – This
lightly raced colt is 2-2 at Woodbine so far, and poses an interesting threat.
He has won at 7furlongs over the turf and then he won at a 1 and 1/16 mile over
their tapeta surface in the Grade 3 Marine Stakes. Clearly the mile should suit
him just fine, and he will likely find himself on or near the lead here. He was
able to improve from his first start to his second start, and no reason to
think that can’t continue to happen. We’ll just have to see if Woodbine’s top 2
year old can make the jump here. I believe he is a threat with some value.
Jubilee – Ridden by Justin Stein and trained by Kevin Attard – The 2019
Canadian Horse of the Year is looking to become the third female to win this
event. She had her four-race win streak snapped last time out in the Grade 1
Diana Stakes at Saratoga. The event featured Rushing Fall, Mean Mary, and
SisterCharlie which are 3 of the top turf horses in all of North American.
There was absolutely no shame in that defeat at Saratoga. Woodbine’s leading
jockey Justin Stein takes the call here, and when they turn for home he will
have Starship Jubilee absolutely rolling.
Runner – Ridden by Daisuke Fukumoto and trained by Mark Casse – Olympic
Runner looks to be up against it here in this race. He has run well in graded
stakes in the last 2 race, however those were sprinting on the tapeta. He
stretches out in distance to the mile which he has only ran one time in a 2nd
place finish. Also, in 5 starts on the turf he is winless which makes this task
even tougher. I just don’t see this one as having much of a shot here.
Pier – Ridden by Stephen Bahen and trained by Barbara Minshall – This horse
looks to be the most likely pace setter in this race. The last 5 times out
Admiralty Pier has gne straight to the lead in graded stakes. He was able to
win 2 of those races including a race against March to the Arch at Tampa Bay in
March of 2020. He also set the pace in the King Edward in which March to the Arch
was able to turn the tables and run him down. There seems to be less
competition for the lead in this race then in races past so he will be
dangerous on the front end.
Proposition – Ridden by Luis Contreras and trained by Chad Brown – Chad brown
is the best turf trainer in North America and he enters Value Proposition in
here after losing in the Grade 3 Poker at Belmont in July. He will likely be
sitting mid-pack and Brown has this one ready based on the steady workout tab
leading into this race. He will certainly be in the hunt coming down the
stretch, as he has 5 races on turf and 3 of those are wins.
#8 War of
Will – Ridden by Rafael Hernandez and trained by Mark Casse – This is by
far the best of the Mark Casse trio. War of Will is most likely going to be the
favorite when loading into the gate, and it is well deserved. Last time out at
Keeneland he was able to win the Grade 1 Makers Mark Mile. He was also the
winner of the 2019 Preakness Stakes. He will take up a nice stalking position,
and should rate a big chance down the stretch. While War of Will is certain to
be the favorite, he can absolutely be beaten in this race.
1: #4 Starship Jubilee
2: #8 War of Will
3: #3 Shirl’s Speight
4: #6 Admiralty Pier
Direct to Woodbine Mile
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